Assessing early predictions about threatened terrestrial vertebrates in Spain in relation to the socio-economic changes of the last 50 years

Abstract

In this study, we demonstrate for the first time that predictions about the future of threatened vertebrate fauna made at the beginning of conservation efforts in Spain (1970s) had a low probability of being correct (0.28 [0.15-0.45] IC 95%) and were therefore worse than would be expected by pure chance (0.5). Predictions were particularly poor for birds and predators, in contrast to mammals and non-predators. Specifically, predictions of future declines, which we identified in a literature search on wildlife from the 1970s, were much less accurate (0.20 [0.07–0.38]) than predictions of recovery (0.62 [0.25–0.91]). We discuss these results within the framework of species and habitat conservation, but also in relation to the socioeconomic changes experienced in Spain over the last 50 years, placing particular emphasis on the unexpected direct (reduced direct persecution) and indirect (changes in land use) consequences of rural exodus. If we consider only the decline predictions, we suggest that rural abandonment was behind the prediction failure in 53.1% of cases, compared to 46.9% attributable to conservation efforts. Furthermore, we reviewed the various national catalogues of threatened fauna since the first List promoted by Blas Aritio in 1973 and concluded that, in general, they have not accurately reflected the improved status of formerly threatened species.