Forest Inventories and habitat models to predict regeneration of Mediterranean woody species in forest plantations

Abstract

Navarro-Cerrillo, R. M., Clavero, I., Lorenzo Vidaña, A., Quero J. L., Duque-Lazo J. 2016. Forest Inventories and habitat models to predictregeneration of Mediterranean woody species in forest plantations. Ecosistemas 25(3): 6-21. Doi.: 10.7818/ECOS.2016.25-3.02

Can we model the potential habitat of natural regeneration of Mediterranean woody species in forest plantations using distribution models? In this paper, dasometric variables from a forest inventory of Sierra de Baza Natural Park, combined with environmental variables (climatic, topographic) and biotic variables were analyzed to assess which factors influence the regeneration of seven woody species (Pinus sylvestris, P. nigra, P. pinaster, P. halepensis, Quercus ilex, Crataegus monogyna and Acer opalus). Modeling potential habitat for regeneration was done using Maxent in the current climate, and two future climate scenarios. The combination of biotic and climatic variables was important to predict regeneration of Pinus species, A. opalus subsp. granatense and C. monogyna, while the regeneration of Q. ilex was more related to climate predictors. In future climate change scenarios, P. halepensis optimum regeneration habitat could increase significantly, whereas the remaining species tend to  moderate decreases (25%) for the period 2000-2050. Our results highlight the importance of species distribution models as a useful tool for achieving greater naturalization of forest plantations by identifying areas of future climatic optimum distribution. We further demonstrate the potential of forest inventory data to monitor changes in regeneration and prioritize restoration actions to facilitate regeneration.