Do demographic dynamics explain recent changes in land uses in northwest Spain?

Abstract

Rural areas in northwestern Spain are showing a population exodus toward urban nucli, along with a complex territorial reorganization and a polarization of land uses (abandonment vs. intensification). This study explored the relationships between recent demographic dynamics and land use changes related to the primary sector in the Principality of Asturias, considering two administrative levels of analysis (municipality and parish). Population change rates were calculated from 1960 (municipalities) and 1981 (parishes) to the present using data from the National Statistics Institute, and indices of land use abandonment and intensification were computed using CORINE Land Cover (1990–2018) and other cartographic sources. We fitted univariate linear regression models with robust standard error estimation and conducted Mann-Whitney U tests, using population change rates as predictors of abandonment and intensification land use. 90% of municipalities and parishes experienced depopulation. In terms of land use patterns, 7.47% of the area underwent abandonment and 10.72% experienced forest and agricultural intensification. Population change rates were negatively related to abandonment at both municipal and parish levels, and to forest use intensification at the parish level. In parishes affected by depopulation, both abandonment and agricultural intensification were higher compared to those with population increase. The results of this study indicated that recent demographic dynamics did not constitute an unequivocal driver of land use change.