Environmental change predictions in Cuatro Cienegas valley ecosystem using the “KSIM”

Abstract

The desert ecosystem of the Cuatro Cienegas Valley, Coahuila, Mexico, with its endemic species and Ramsar wetlands (number 734), which demonstrate its ecological relevance and justify the importance of its conservation, has been environmentally damaged by the exploitation of superficial and subterranean water for agricultural irrigation. For this reason, the water levels in some of its pools have decreased, even drying up. This research aims to simulate the environmental changes generated by the irrigation modernization project in the Cuatro Cienegas ecosystem, through K-SIMulation (KSIM), to predict them in a trend and contextual scenario by a 30-years period. The variables Air, Flora and Fauna, Hydrology, Society and Soil were defined by expert, who collaborated in the project, and their starting values were assigned based on their current conservation status. The KSIM results, in the trend scenario, show that the environmental quality of Soil, Hydrology and Society will be affected, while Air and Flora and Fauna will remain constant. In the contextual scenario, the environmental quality of Hydrology, Society and Flora and Fauna will benefit, while Soil and Air will be affected temporarily to a lesser degree than the current trend. Finally, the simulation shows the differences between conserving the current trends and changing them, helping in the prioritization of strategic actions to quantify and carry out actions oriented to the conservation and sustainable use of natural resources in the ecosystem of this valley.